The year 2023 for Kenya, on the international stage, recorded two diametrically opposite signals, but also in line with what can be considered as the pre-entry into the rich countries of the globe.
Rich and highly indebted, then.
As rich as Brazil, India or South Africa can already be, and therefore full of resources and lacking in social, health and so on.

The first sign is the growing interest of the G20 powers in and around Nairobi, certified by the important role played by President Ruto at successive international summits and the entry, led by him, of the African Union countries (with the exception of South Africa, which was already there) as an additional member of the Gotha of 20 industrialised countries.

Using a football metaphor, Kenya, which has been in the B series of the 'developing' nations for a few years now, after many years in the C series of the former Third World, is now definitely aiming for promotion to the top division, composed of precisely 20 teams.
The other aspect, however, is an unprecedented economic crisis in the country: the dollar and the euro have reached all-time highs, petrol ditto. Were we better off when we were considered poor?

Expert economists say no, and the interest of the United Europe (including Italy, which has put Kenya with Nigeria in the first realities with which to do business in 2024 under the celebrated 'Mattei Plan'.
But even the growth of the middle class, until it is forced back to being 'lower class', is a testimony to how the direction taken is the most realistic one (which does not necessarily mean better, but more in line with those who want to give you a hand, for their interests).
Hence, 2023 has given Kenya and those who approach it, more awareness and in this sense also the need to find the keys to break the deadlock.

For the coming year, the country has an important deadline: in June it will have to repay a super-debt, contracted in 2014 in Eurobonds, worth $2 billion.
The Ruto government's plans were to start paying a first instalment (around 900 million) as early as 31 December, thanks also to two loans from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
Instead, a few days ago, the national treasury declared that there will be no advance repayment and that it will all be paid next June. Economists, just as they did not believe in the year-end instalment, are sceptical about the final repayment in one instalment.

In practice this means great investment opportunities for foreigners in the country, and perhaps the good time for Italian companies and individuals to take notice, and not just the far-sighted ENI and a few others.
The agreement signed in December by Kenya and the European Union, with the visit of Ursula Von Der Leyen to Nairobi, from this point of view is a good omen, because it will unblock the import-export market with 27 states, including Italy, regulating downwards, or at least towards a decisive cut in bureaucracy, business between Nairobi and Brussels.

This whole economic picture might give us hope, were it not for the fact that the internal situation remains critical and the government finds no other solution than to raise taxes, inevitably affecting not only its own citizens, but also residents and investors who decide to settle in the country.
This is the case with the bandied about increase in work and residence permits, as well as every document, licence and bureaucratic process.
From this point of view, being a democracy 'supervised' by the US and the EU (China might even overlook this...) the judiciary does not have its hands tied and has already suspended numerous laws or regulations already approved by parliament and, in the case of the fixed tax on houses, also already signed by the president.

We will see what happens this year and how Kenya will be able to maintain the precarious circus balance between enticing entrepreneurs from halfway around the world to invest in the country and not throttling those who already have. In all of this, there is also tourism, on a very similar axis of balance: on the one hand Kenya is pulling (we can see it right now) and the purchasing power of the currency is enticing, on the other those who have to guarantee services and competitiveness with other destinations are struggling.

There are no real recipes and if there are, they are not part of these times and perhaps not even of this planet anymore.
We trust that, as has happened in past years, everyone's interest in Kenya's resources, its political and social stability, given its strategic position between complicated nations, the need not to let one or the other economic bloc prevail, will prevail and not plunge it into difficult situations that could then have repercussions on security, hunger and disease.
Happy 2024 Kenya, where hope is not only the last to die, but also believes in reincarnation.