In Africa, when the world's powerful don't know where to put their problems, they send them south of the Equator. It happened with toxic waste, it happens with forgotten wars, and now some people are thinking of doing the same with the Palestinians: “away from Gaza, let's take them to Somaliland.”

Then again, if you ask nine out of ten Italians in Rome what Somaliland is, they'll think of a brand of household appliances. Instead, it's a region that has considered itself independent from Somalia since 1991, complete with its own flag, army, and even military parades. Except that no one, from Kenya to the United States, has ever bothered to recognize it.

So here's the idea: you want a state? Well, in exchange, you'll also get a few thousand expelled Palestinians. An “all-inclusive” recognition, just without the beach resort.

America discovers Hargeisa

In the United States, the usual group of hawkish Republicans (led by Cruz) has already sniffed out the deal: Somaliland as a strategic partner, useful for keeping China at bay and doing Israel a favor. Washington would never miss out on a new laboratory for experimental geopolitics.

Meanwhile, in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, no one confirms or denies anything. Press silence. But ordinary people are talking. “The Palestinians are our brothers, but they cannot be deported by force,” says a teacher. “Accepting them like this would be opening the door to Al-Shabab.”

In practice: while they play Risk in the air-conditioned offices of Washington, here the stakes are real life.

Recognition in installments

Somaliland, after all, has been dreaming of being “recognized” for thirty years. It has built schools, a police force, and an appearance of stability. But there is also another side: repression of the press, citizens arrested for waving the wrong flag, entire cities razed to the ground like Las Anod. Amnesty International speaks of war crimes. In short, not exactly the Switzerland of the Horn of Africa.

Yet recognition has become a kind of drug: in order to obtain it, the leaders in Hargeisa seem willing to swallow any geopolitical pill. Even the most indigestible ones.

The moral of the story

From Italy, a former colonial power that left more statues than infrastructure in Somalia, the story brings a bitter smile. Somaliland is only noticed when it becomes someone else's pawn.

And so the question remains unanswered, like the fate of this region: is it really worth trading the dream of a state for the nightmare of becoming complicit in deportation? If the future of one people depends on the forced relocation of another, then it is not independence: it is subletting.

Because, ultimately, Somaliland reminds us that in international politics, recognition is not given: it is traded. And often the bargaining chip is human lives.