At the end of 2025, Kenya looks toward 2026 with half-closed eyes, like someone who wakes up in the middle of the night and hears their stomach growling before remembering that they are not hungry: just anxious.

According to the latest survey by Infotrak Research and Consulting, less than one in three Kenyans believe that 2026 will be a better year than 2025 — the classic optimism reserved for theater matinees, not real life. Only 29% expect an improvement, 25% expect no change, and a melancholic 16% fear a deterioration. And then there is that large 30% who admit, with the candor of those who lost their bearings at the first turn, that they have no idea what to expect.

It is a nation poised between hope and resignation, with economic anxiety galloping faster than fleeing cattle: almost half of those surveyed (49%) fear that the economy will worsen in 2026. The fear of spiraling inflation, relentless cost of living, and shrinking personal finances is overwhelming even among the most optimistic—especially along the coast and in the heart of the Rift Valley.

Yet, in this landscape of faltering hopes, there are those who continue to believe that something can really change: William Ruto remains the first choice for many citizens for redefining the political agenda. According to the latest polls, if the election were held today, the incumbent president would lead the race for re-election with about 28% of the vote, well ahead of the other challengers.

Behind him, like a shadow that is growing but not yet obscuring, stands Fred Matiang'i, former interior minister and possible opposition candidate with about 13% of the vote. It is not the comeback of the century, but it is a sign: there are those who look beyond the jubilation of government flags and see a possible — or at least imaginable — alternative.

Politics, as always, does not live on numbers but on stories, and Kenya in 2026 could be the long chronicle of two narratives in the balance: that of those who govern by trying to keep the boat afloat in a sea of debt, taxes, and promises of growth — and that of those in the opposition who try to make themselves heard while public confidence wavers.

Ruto has made his political mark on major infrastructure projects and the vague promise of transforming Kenya into a kind of “African Singapore,” with scaffolding, trucks, and dreams of exports that seem bigger than taxpayers' pockets. But while there is talk of new infrastructure funds and roads to be inaugurated, ordinary people continue to wonder whether their paychecks will cover fuel, their children's schooling, and a decent dinner.

And what do Kenyans actually expect in 2026?

• Economy or mirages? Growth of around 5-6% is touted by state leaders as a promise of recovery, but for the average citizen, those numbers are like weather forecasts: they show a possible future, not a certain one.
• Work and employment: job insecurity remains a thorn in the side, especially for young people and those who live in the informal economy (which is the majority).
• Politics and leadership: Ruto remains the favorite, but the electorate is fragmented and the shadow of an uncertain but growing opposition could reshape the national debate in the coming months.
• Social tensions: movements such as #RutoMustGo and past protests against certain fiscal measures show that discontent is not an abstract concept: it can explode, fade away, or transform.

In conclusion, if 2026 were a movie, it would be a Netflix series starring a people torn between the anxiety of survival and the desire for rebirth, which in each episode makes you think you're heading in one direction, and then the next episode takes you somewhere else.
 
There are those who focus on continuity, those who focus on change, those who believe that their well-being actually depends on new infrastructure, and those who wonder if they should be ashamed of simply dreaming of a toilet flush that works. A people who have not yet decided whether to move forward, go back, or simply stand still and wait for an economic miracle that resembles, at least a little, the promise of a better future.