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Sudden recovery of the Kenyan shilling against the euro and dollar

The reasons for the record loss of foreign currencies in just 2 days

16-02-2024 by redazione

And suddenly the Kenyan shilling recovered, returning to its pre-summer levels and above all making the biggest and most sudden leap forward in the last twelve years, gaining more than twenty points in just two days and prompting calls for a stop due to excessive declines.
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning was chaos: while forex offices were selling the dollar between Ksh152 and Ksh157, and the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) had quoted it at 156.7 on the foreign exchange market, it fell from 162 shillings to 149 in the banks' online indices, but when the trend signalled that it would fall further, the banks' quotations disappeared.

It was the same for the euro, which fell steadily from 176 and, after touching 154, was no longer considered for purchase.
But what has happened in recent days to create this situation of sudden economic recovery?
If until a few weeks ago Kenya was at risk of economic default because of the difficulty in finding liquidity to repay the $2 billion eurobond maturing next June, news arrived at the beginning of the week that a new eurobond had been issued, which would seem to have attracted new creditors, who have subscribed for no less than $5 billion in bonds.

So, with two of these, the old debt will be paid off, repurchasing the maturing Eurobonds and paying off the last of the interest, and the others will hopefully serve to put the state's coffers back on track. So the inflow of new dollar liquidity immediately boosted confidence in the shilling and its purchasing power against hard currencies, especially the US dollar, which remains the leading currency in trade and imports.
Certainly, the record appreciation of the shilling is bound to reduce import costs in terms of local currency, as importers will have to shell out less for the same volume of goods ordered. It will also reduce the interest cost of government debt for the government, with the Treasury calculating an immediate saving of 40 billion shillings.

A breath of optimism for the market, therefore, a little less for foreign tourists who are recalculating the cost of their stay and services, not to mention pensioners or those living on foreign income. 
Two questions remain. The first: are the numbers real or are they a projection after the interest shown in the new Eurobond?
The second: what will the government do with the eventual surplus? Because if the June default is safe, a few months later it will be back to thinking about paying new interest and dealing with the same economic problems as always.

TAGS: scellinoeurodollarovalutedebito

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