Those living in Kenya find it hard even to imagine a society that stops having children. Here, newborns arrive in villages, on the outskirts of towns, in large cities and in the countryside, regardless of economic circumstances or the existence of a welfare state. This is why the news that Italy has reached its lowest birth rate since the Second World War is met with a certain degree of disbelief.
In a country where babies are born on every street corner, the Kenyan press is highlighting the news that Italy is grappling with its biggest birth rate crisis since 1945 and is asking questions.
Among the reasons cited are the economic crisis and the state’s meagre support for young mothers. If that were the only factor, no one would be born in Africa… the truth is that even in Kenya they have realised that we Europeans are heading towards a self-imposed extinction. With far too many of our compatriots thinking only of accelerating this process.
The news has also been featured on the main Kenyan news websites: in 2025, Italy recorded just 355,000 births, almost 4 per cent fewer than the previous year, whilst the fertility rate fell to 1.14 children per woman, the lowest level since 1945. This does not take into account that a large proportion of these births involve foreign mothers with Italian citizenship. And then you go and put the word ‘remigration’ before ‘integration’…
According to experts, the main factors at play are the cost of living, job insecurity and insufficient support for young families.
Anyone observing this situation from Kenya, however, cannot help but notice an apparent paradox. Here, children are born in neighbourhoods lacking essential services, into families living on just a few euros a day, in contexts where access to healthcare, education and even drinking water is often a daily struggle. Yet motherhood continues to be regarded as a natural value and a source of community wealth, rather than an economic calculation.
Of course, the comparison cannot be reduced to a simple question of income. In Africa, cultural, religious, social and demographic factors come into play that are very different from those in Europe. But the Italian case suggests that material well-being, on its own, does not guarantee the desire to start a family. Indeed, rising expectations, uncertainty about the future and individualism often seem to produce the opposite effect.
Even in Italy, many demographers emphasise that the economic explanation, whilst important, is not sufficient to account for the phenomenon. Surveys show that many young people would like to have children but choose not to due to a combination of job insecurity, housing difficulties, delayed independence and profound changes in cultural norms and life priorities.
From Kenya, where the population continues to grow rapidly, this reflection takes on particular significance. Whilst Africa is set to account for an ever-increasing share of the world’s population, much of Europe is facing a slow but steady demographic decline. These two opposing trajectories reflect not only different economies, but also a different relationship with the future.
Perhaps this is precisely the question that the news item – read from a veranda overlooking the Indian Ocean – suggests to Italians: if poverty alone does not prevent people from having children, how much of a burden is a society which, despite having achieved prosperity and rights, seems to have lost faith in the future?